It Is Not the Current Technology: Reasons Why Society Is Not Properly Developing Technologically as You Would Expect

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Reasons Why Technology Has Not Advanced As Rapidly As Envisioned
  • Lack of funding and resources
  • Practical limitations and constraints
  • Social, political and economic factors slow adoption
• How Expectations Get Set Unrealistically High
  • Origins of visions for radical tech advances
  • The long timeline of scientific discovery
  • The unpredictability of innovation cycles
• Where Progress Is Still Happening
  • Recent examples of tech bringing massive change, just not what people predicted decades ago
  • Promising frontiers expected to enable more change soon
  • Revolutionary innovations often build gradually over long periods
• Conclusion

Introduction

The evolution of technology has transformed human civilization, enabling innovations in transportation, health, communications and seemingly every aspect of daily life. However, some visions of radical technological capabilities from science fiction and predictions have not yet come to pass. Why don't we have flying cars, teleportation devices, or colonies on Mars even as Silicon Valley promises a dazzling future? There are several key reasons why society is not properly developing technologically as rapidly as many experts, inventors and thought leaders envisioned decades ago.

Reasons Why Technology Has Not Advanced As Rapidly As Envisioned

A. Lack of funding and resources

Many predictions rely on extensive funding and resources that simply have not been available historically.

• Research funding trends:
  • US R&D spending was around 2.8% of GDP in the 1960s during the space race and slipped below 2.4% by 2000s
  • Stagnation in government research budgets
  • Private sector makes up larger share now but focuses more on short term applied research
• Developing radical visions would require amounts of energy, rare earth metals, advanced materials, and production capabilities that we still do not possess. For example:
  • Flying car prototypes severely limited in capabilities due to battery issues
  • Quantum computing development slowed by ability to manipulate qubits at very low temperatures

Type of Limitation	Specific Resource Constraints	Tech Visions Restricted
Funding	Declining public budgets, emphasis on short term research	Advances in energy, space exploration, particle physics slowed
Energy	Battery density issues, renewable energy adoption still maturing	Autonomous electric vehicles, off-grid colonies
Materials	Reliable quantum materials, graphene production levels	Quantum computing, ultra-efficient electronics
Manufacturing	Nanoscale precision manufacturing techniques	Highly advanced sensors, robotics, and implants

Therefore, visions that captured the public imagination have stalled due to capital intensive demands going beyond current means.

B. Practical limitations and constraints

Additionally, there are physical and engineering realities that impose boundaries on what is possible right now. The laws of physics can only be pushed so far currently.

• Teleportation of matter is likely impossible due to quantum mechanics principles and Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle dictating properties cannot be determined simultaneously
• Faster than light travel still firmly theoretical due to immense energy required
• Brain implants to enhance intelligence could require we decode neuroscience we still do not fully understand
• Life extension escaping hayflick limit may require manipulation of telomeres we cannot control yet through genetics and cell biology

Regulatory approvals also dictate slower advancement in areas like genetics, implants and autonomy:

• FDA approval pathway for mass adoption of implants requires years long clinical trials
• Legal and ethical implications of genetic editing delay rapid progress
• Fully autonomous vehicles face regulatory debates over fail-safe performance

Therefore, seemingly basic expectations about escaping mortality, traveling instantly across galaxies, or merging man and machine fail to account for stubborn realities standing in the way.

C. Social, political and economic factors slow adoption

Rapid, visible transformation of society also assumes smooth acceptance by the public, policymakers, and market forces that is rarely guaranteed.

• Resistance from unions, skepticism of safety, and liability implications can severely slow roll out of autonomous trucks/taxis
• Concerns over privacy, bias, and job losses shape perceptions and regulation of AI/algorithm usage
• Entrenched fossil fuel interests lobby against subsidies needed for renewable energy infrastructure
• Case Study: High speed rail projects
  • Despite being implemented successfully in Europe and Asia, plans for high speed rail connecting major US cities have been proposed and scrapped since the 1990s
  • A mix of political battles over budgets, regulatory reviews dragging on for decades, and interference from interested industries like airlines and auto manufacturers have prevented adoption

Therefore, beyond technical constraints, public opinion, special interests and bureaucratic systems modulate the pace of innovation translation into society.

How Expectations Get Set Unrealistically High

In addition to limitations with resources and socioeconomic systems, inflated expectations originate from cultural elements that embed overly optimistic speculation into the public consciousness.

A. Origins of visions for radical tech advances

Concepts that framed ambitious thinking about technological achievements emerged from early science fiction works that extrapolated possibilities without constraints:

• Famous authors like Jules Verne, Isaac Asimov and Arthur C Clarke envisioned space exploration, advanced robots and communication devices ubiquitous in modern society
• However, the vibrant imaginations of sci-fi narratives invariably make simplistic assumptions about scientific feasibility

Likewise, charismatic inventors and innovators feel immense pressure to paint extraordinary visions of transformative capabilities:

• Elon Musk sold the idea of colonizing Mars andNeuralink brain implants with aspirational predictions rather than sober assessments of development timelines
• Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes promised blood testing advances that proved completely fabricated

Therefore, science fiction and public figures praising tech potential establish a cultural backdrop where conservatism gets characterized as lacking imagination rather than acknowledging reality.

B. The long timeline of scientific discovery

The cycle from basic research to life changing innovations can take multiple decades of groundwork within scientific communities before reaching public visibility:

• Quantum mechanics principles theorized in early 20th century before applications emerged in lasers/electronics in 1960s-70s
• Genome sequencing and gene therapy were gradually built upon decades of advances since discovery of DNA structure in 1950s before revolutionizing medicine in 21st century

But such long arcs feel unsatisfying next to visions of rapid transformation. Hence the public often lacks appreciation for the piecewise building blocks underlying sudden disruptive tech able to fundamentally reshape society.

C. The unpredictability of innovation cycles

The sporadic, unpredictable nature of advances arising from basic research intrinsically defies most attempts at forecasting:

• Many areas like fusion power, cancer treatments and experiential entertainment stall for decades without massive breakthroughs
• Meanwhile, shock breakthroughs like DeepMind's AlphaGo AI system beating the world's best Go players emerge ahead of any reasonable predictions

Peter Diamandis, founder of Singularity University, suggested true shooting star innovations broadside conventional thinking:

“The greatest demolisher of predictive models is the curve ball of invention.”

Therefore, the inherent unevenness of scientific discovery ensures we will continue being surprised.

Where Progress Is Still Happening

However, for all that technological achievements fall short of sci-fi imagination, extreme advancements at staggering scale have absolutely transformed society beyond what a mid 20th century observer would fathom.

A. Recent examples of tech bringing massive change, just not what people predicted decades ago

Revolutions in digital connectivity, processing power, sensors and networks have delivered innovations no 1950s-era expert would recognize:

• Internet/Web - Interconnected world with access to humanity's knowledge
• Smartphones - Powerful handheld supercomputer with apps, connectivity and entertainment
• Cloud/SaaS - On demand computing resources and software without owning infrastructure
• eCommerce/FinTech - Buying, selling and managing finances digitally
• Streaming entertainment - Media and content served on-demand

And scientific domains like materials, biotechnology and renewable energy have taken strides few envisioned in the 20th century:

• Graphene & nanomaterials enabling sensors, electronics, robotics
• CRISPR genetic editing to program biology
• Improvements in solar efficiency and battery storage

These radical advances form the technological backbone most taking future progress for granted.

B. Promising frontiers expected to enable more change soon

Upcoming waves of innovation set the stage for the next level of modern magic:

• Quantum computing projected to make stunning breakthroughs in intractable computational problems
• Hyperloop pod transports to radically reshape transportation
• 3D/4D printing transforming manufacturing flexibility and customization
• Brain computer interfaces (BCI) allowing thought to control devices

Each carries the torch to realize more visions considered impossible before.

C. Revolutionary innovations often build gradually over long periods

Even when technological achievements transform how people live and work, they are usually the results of long development timelines with contributions from many sources.

Notable examples include:

• The airplane - Developed over centuries with pioneers such as George Cayley, Otto Lilienthal and the Wright brothers making critical breakthroughs in aerodynamics, engines and controls.
• The Internet - Built on 1960s military and academic network research, combined with software/hardware computing advances from silicon transistors to HTML/HTTP protocols.
• Cellular networks - Leveraged decades of work on radio/cellular technology since 1940s at Bell Labs to eventually produce handheld mobile devices.
• Genome sequencing - DNA structure uncovered in 1950s, followed by years of advancing sequencing methods before accelerating into mapping the human genome completed in 2003.

Therefore, innovations highlighted as launching eras like modern aviation, the internet age, mobile connectivity age or genomics age actually brewed over generations of thinkers laying foundations bit by bit.

Laser inventor Charles Townes notes:

“When you hear about a surprising breakthrough, you usually also find there was Lots of advance groundwork preparing decades before.”

And Isaac Asimov once wrote:

“The most exciting phrase to hear in science is not 'Eureka' but 'That’s funny...' when results confound expectations.”

So while expectations move faster than reality, progress accelerates nonetheless as each development opens doors for subsequent rapid bursts. Patience and optimism reign knowing today’s small curiosities become tomorrow’s celebrated marvels over time.

The dramatic flourishing of artificial intelligence and machine learning in recent years makes the next wave of change nigh inevitable.

Conclusion

In review, multifaceted reasons explain the disjoint between envisioned technological transformations and current reality. Expanding scientific frontiers faces pressures between imagination’s appeal and pragmatism's anchor. But historians note periods of disappointment routinely intermix with astonishment at what creative minds eventually achieve within constraints. Technological wonders await in unexpected forms rather than obsolete timetables.

The future remains unwritten. With emerging tools like AI, quantum and genomics now rising, revolutionary innovation still simmers promising to reshape life dramatically in decades hence.

Societal priorities also recalibrate to balance both prosperous advancement and cautions progress. Technological change thereby accelerates selectively toward uplifting human dignity through health, creativity and justice rather than simply accumulate capability alone.

Progress unfolds unevenly but inexorably as science converges toward truth through fits and starts. With patient optimism and visionary guidance, the profound discoveries and breakthroughs of today cascade into new eras beyond imagination tomorrow.